Forewarned is Forearmed

George Santayana once wrote, “Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it,” which means failing to learn from historical events—especially mistakes—makes it likely they will recur.  On June 10, 1940, Benito Mussolini’s Italy, a nation that allied itself with Nazi Germany declared war on Britain and France, which brought the Royal Navy and the Regia Marina (Italian Navy) into conflict in the Mediterranean Sea.  Control of the Mediterranean was essential to the British; they needed to protect supply routes to the Middle East and India, support its forces in North Africa, and keep its critical naval base in Malta supplied. But, the Italian fleet based at Taranto, was a major threat to British naval dominance in the region.

So, on the night of November 11–12, 1940, the British launched 21 Fairey Swordfish biplanes from the aircraft carrier HMS Illustrious and attacked the Italian fleet anchored at Taranto harbor.  The attacking aircraft used a variety of torpedoes and bombs and sank the Italian battleship Conte di Cavour and severely damaged the battleships Littorio and the Caio Duilio, effectively taking the Italian navy out of the sea war.  It also evinced the effectiveness of carrier-based air power, which was still a new concept.

The attack did more than give the British a strategic advantage in the Mediterranean, it also influenced the Japanese in their planning for the attack on Pearl Harbor.  The success of the British attack demonstrated that a small number of carrier-launched aircraft could cripple a larger fleet at anchor, even in a heavily defended harbor.

~ Zelenskyy Did Us a Favor ~

Fast forward 85-years and on June 1st, Ukraine executed a coordinated drone attack on five Russian airbases using more than one hundred drones launched from trucks that had been concealed within Russia itself. The operation targeted high-value Russian assets that were an integral part of Putin’s nuclear triad.

The success of Ukraine’s low-cost drone operation against Russia’s sophisticated air defenses underscores potential vulnerabilities in U.S. military installations, which hopefully has learned something.  I’m not privy to any pentagon discussions but it is hoped Defense Secretary Hegseth  is focusing on specific training programs to counter drone threats and revising operational doctrines.

This attack should serve as a stark reminder of the changing dynamics of modern warfare, where inexpensive drones can inflict significant damage on advanced military assets. For the U.S., this underscores the urgency of adapting defense strategies to address emerging asymmetric modes of warfare.

The reality here is that the continental United States is not as secure as most Americans believe.  The 9/11 attacks could be called a one off, but as 19th-century Prussian military strategist, Helmuth von Moltke the Elder, cautioned, “No plan survives contact with the enemy,” which means once real combat begins, the chaos, uncertainty, and human reaction make even the best-laid plans in need of adaptation.  The battlefields are unpredictable and the asymmetric warfare we see from the Middle East, most notably, the Iranian proxies, i.e., Hamas, Hezbollah and the Houthis could be brought to our shores.

Donald Trump will not allow the Iranians to get a nuclear weapon for a variety of reasons, the most important of which is that if acquired, they will use it against Israel.  And if we or the Israeli’s are forced to take out Iran’s nuclear sites by force, you can bet asymmetric warfare, such as Ukraine’s “Operation Spiderweb” will soon follow in this country.  Be aware.

Quote of the day: “The greatest danger to our future is apathy.”— Jane Goodall