The Man Who Would Be President

The headline read, “California sues over billions in lost high-speed rail funds as Newson battles the Trump administration!”  Governor Gavin Newsom, the man who would be president, is suing the Trump administration for his own incompetence – my what a surprise!  “Trump’s termination of federal grants for California high-speed rail reeks of politics,” said, Newsom.   Followed by, “It’s yet another political stunt to punish California. In reality, this is just a heartless attack on the Central Valley that will put real jobs and livelihoods on the line. We’re suing to stop Trump from derailing America’s only high-speed rail actively under construction.

When approved by voters in 2008 high speed rail connecting San Francisco to Anaheim was promised to be completed by 2020 at a cost of $33 billion.  But seventeen years later, not a single section of the line has been completed. Perhaps that’s due to mismanaging the little things such as failing to complete the state’s required environmental studies and securing of federal grants before the route and the design were even agreed upon – yes, you read that correctly.

I’ve followed this story on and off for years but now that it’s clear Newsom in more interested in running for his party’s presidential nomination in 2028 than in governing the most populous state in the union, I thought we might look under the hood and examine his management of the project.  Of course, Gavin Newsom wasn’t in Sacramento when the project was approved (he was elected governor in 2019) but he’s had six years to straighten this mess out.  And under his administration the state has underestimated utility relocations, canal/flood mitigation, geologic issues and has missed numerous deadlines that have triggered federal criticism.  The original $33 billion estimated cost has ballooned to $128 billion (and counting.)  Meanwhile, only 22 miles of railbed are even ready for tracks.  We’re told full track laying is set to begin next year, something I’ll believe when I see it, but that doesn’t obviate the bigger problem of how the broader route isn’t fully funded while numerous hurdles remain, including “non-anticipated” geological problems with the Pacheco Pass tunnels that will add another $30 – $50 billion in costs.

While this continues to be a work-in-progress the latest plan is focused on Central Valley, but the full Phase 1 completion isn’t scheduled happen until 2040s – if ever – and only then with new federal or private investment.  Yup, Gavin Newsom is absolutely right –  this is a premeditated political attack meant to ‘derail’ the nation’s only high-speed rail project – how heartless of the Trump administration.

There’s no question that Newsom presents himself well, he’s well spoken and charismatic, but I’ve never heard anyone describe him as “competent.”  And if truth be known, unctuous might be a better descriptor.  So, with six years under his belt, I thought a side-by side comparison with a high-speed rail line in another part of the world might give a clearer picture of the man’s ability to get things done.

                                                       California                                                Spain

Project                              California High‑Speed Rail                  Alta Velocidad Española

Cities                      San Francisco to Anaheim (494 miles)      Madrid and Barcelona (465 miles)

Start Date                                    2008                                                             1988

Completion Date                2030-2035 est.                                           1992

Time to Completion            25 years est.                                             4 years

Cost                                            $128 billion est.                                      $13.6 billion

Do we really want this man as president?