The Same Military – a Different Commander-in-Chief

The United States has been involved in two major military operations during the last four years, “Operation Allies Refuge” that took place in September of 2021, when President Joe Biden withdrew from Afghanistan, and Operation Midnight Hammer, executed just two days ago.

The stated goal of Operation Allies Refuge was to evacuate Afghan nationals who had supported U.S. efforts—primarily interpreters, embassy personnel, and others eligible for Special Immigrant Visas (SIVs). Notably, the broader military withdrawal from Afghanistan did not have a unified operational designation. This absence of clear structure or command may have contributed to the disorganized evacuation at Kabul’s Hamid Karzai International Airport, as well as the abandonment of billions of dollars’ worth of advanced military equipment. In contrast, the objective of Operation Midnight Hammer was precise: to neutralize Iran’s nuclear weapons infrastructure and its related command-and-control systems through a single, coordinated strike.

Considering the gravity of these operations I thought it might be interesting to compare the two further.  To be fair, the Afghan withdrawal was not a conventional offensive operation, rather it was a retrograde operation, i.e., a planned withdrawal under complex and hostile conditions, however, it’s also true the same principles of war largely apply to both.

1. Clearly Defined Objectives – While Biden’s goal to end U.S. military involvement was clear, the execution was murky. The objective shifted from a “responsible withdrawal” to simply exiting by his arbitrary August 31^st deadline, regardless of on-ground realities.  Meanwhile, the objective to disable Iran’s nuclear weapons infrastructure and associated command and control systems in a single, coordinated strike was unambiguous.
2. Unity of Command and Control – During the Afghan withdrawal there was great confusion and conflicting messaging between the White House, Pentagon, and State Department. Local military commanders were often reacting in real-time without a synchronized operational framework. During Operation Midnight Hammer the operation successfully coordinated multiple synchronized components: U.S. stealth bombers & escort fighters, i.e., B-2s and F-22s, cyber units, submarine missile strikes, and ISR platforms—all flowing from a centralized command concept and the coordination was impeccable.
3. Intelligence – U.S. intelligence dramatically underestimated the speed at which the Taliban would seize control. Claims that Kabul could hold for 90 days proved wildly inaccurate.  The rapid collapse of the Afghan army was not anticipated, despite long-standing evidence to the contrary.  Meanwhile, during Saturday’s strike on Iran, U.S. and Israeli intelligence allowed the stealth platforms (the B-2s and F-22s), to work with electronic jamming, resulting a cyber shutdown giving us total surprise; in essence, the rapid disabling of Iranian response capabilities neutralized Iran’s defenses before they could react.
4. Speed, Surprise and  Initiative – during ‘Allies Refuge’ it was the Taliban who responded with speed, surprise, and initiative and it was the U.S. that reacting rather than dictating events. The evacuation of the embassy and airport were haphazard and chaotic, while Midnight Hammer took the Iranians by surprise, and Trump had kept them guessing as to what “within two weeks” meant.
5. Logistics – Once the evacuation began, the airlift itself (Operation Allies Refuge) was logistically impressive: over 120,000 evacuated in two weeks. However, the early withdrawal of military assets and the closure of Bagram Air Base severely undercut planning and supply lines, contributing to chaos at Kabul Airport, additionally, and according to the Department of Defense, the estimated value of the equipment left behind was in excess of $7 billion. Meanwhile, we must gauge the logistical aspects of Midnight Hammer by the success of the operation.
6. Training and Morale – The U.S.-trained Afghan National Army disintegrated rapidly.  Their morale, loyalty, and cohesion were overestimated, undermining the entire withdrawal plan.  On Saturday, especially is-à-vis the high-end units involved (e.g., stealth bomber crews, cyber command, ISR operators) imply that our elite forces integrated seamlessly with the Israelis.
7. Technological & Tactical Superiority – In Afghanistan U.S. forces retained superiority and could secure Kabul Airport. But military advantage did not translate into control of the withdrawal environment.  Meanwhile, Operation Midnight Hammer was predicated on the U.S. technological edge in stealth, cyber warfare, precision-guided munitions, jamming, and ISR dominance.
8. Flexibility & Adaptability – In Afghanistan our commanders on the ground adapted quickly to worsening conditions (e.g., shifting to airlift from a single airfield) but the initial planning lacked contingency and Washington was slow to respond to deteriorating conditions. On Saturday the entire operation hinged on rigid sequencing and there’s no denying the result.
9. Minimizing Collateral Damage – The ISIS-K suicide bombing at Abbey Gate killed 13 U.S. service members and 170 Afghans. A retaliatory drone strike killed 10 innocent civilians, including children. Panic and disorder led to desperate Afghans clinging to aircraft, some falling to their deaths.  Trump ordered the military to attack military and nuclear infrastructure, not civilian centers and there have been no reported civilian casualties
10. Achieving Strategic and Political Goals – While the U.S. did end its physical military presence in Afghanistan, the manner of departure damaged American credibility, emboldened adversaries, and abandoned thousands of allies as the Taliban quickly took power, and Afghanistan reverted to authoritarian rule almost overnight.  Operation Midnight Hammer’s objectives were met and were brilliantly executed.

While some tactical successes occurred in Afghanistan (especially the airlift), the operation failed in 7 of the 10 critical areas, making it the most humiliating U.S. military withdrawal in history in how it was conducted and what it left behind.  Meanwhile, Operation Midnight Hammer exhibited tactical brilliance, but it is too soon to draw strategic conclusions.

Quote of the day: “There’s one thing I can say with confidence…Donald Trump will not be president.  That’s not going to happen.  You can take that to the bank.  Now, it’s not a reality show.  It’s not The Apprentice.  This is a serious job.  You’re not going to get it just by… maybe on Saturday Night Live.” – Barack Obama, February 16^th, 2016, Rancho Mirage, California