If you’re like most Americans, you may be wondering why Donald Trump has chosen to confront Venezuela so aggressively. While we don’t know what goes on behind closed doors in the Oval Office, it’s clear this dispute extends beyond just narco-trafficking and illegal immigration. And given the current political rubric for judging foreign engagements, Trump is being scrutinized far more aggressively than either of his predecessors — especially Barack Obama — when dealing with adversarial regimes.
U.S. diplomacy with Venezuela under both Obama and Biden could be described as, and I’ll be kind, ‘patient.’ Trump’s approach is uncompromising. This standoff has deep roots – and it begins with Venezuela’s oil industry. The country nationalized its petroleum sector in the 1970s, bringing foreign-controlled assets under state control, and later under President Hugo Chávez formalized that control over joint ventures with companies like ExxonMobil and ConocoPhillips.
When companies sought compensation through arbitration tribunals, Venezuela faced significant awards, though full payment has been limited. Over decades, U.S. sanctions have been part of the policy toolkit toward Caracas. Starting in the mid-2000s, Washington began imposing targeted sanctions against Venezuelan officials and entities for corruption, anti-democratic actions, and ties to narco-terror networks; these sanctions have been expanded significantly under the Trump administration.
Meanwhile, Venezuela’s oil exports — once among the world’s largest — have declined dramatically due to mismanagement and corruption. Sanctions have disrupted traditional export routes but exports to China and other countries inimical to U.S. interests navigate around these sanctions – hence the seizure of oil tankers we’ve been reading about.
In response to recent U.S. actions, Venezuela’s ‘rubber-stamp’ National Assembly overwhelmingly passed a law to criminalize activities it deems hostile to its maritime commerce, including actions linked to what Caracas perceives as piracy or blockades. This legislation carries severe penalties and marks a legislative step in Venezuela’s pushback against U.S. pressure.
This matter is no longer about drugs, stolen oil and illegal immigration; it’s about credibility, deterrence, and geopolitical leverage. For too long, Venezuela’s kleptocratic regime has thumbed its nose at the U.S. and Trump’s hardline strategy telegraphs a simple message: if a regime chooses to continue sending drugs and criminals into the U.S., Trump now has a plausible reason to engage in sustained economic pressure and limited military action including the seizure of “stolen oil.”
What originated as a legal dispute has now become a strategic confrontation over the world’s largest oil reserves and the criminal drug networks they sustain. Maduro may have been wagering that the United States would again respond with court filings and more sanctions and would avoid escalation – with Trump in office he may now be re-thinking his options. No one can predict the future, but one thing is certain: the status quo is untenable.