The Second World War has always fascinated me for any number of reasons, and yesterday in honor of the attack on Pearl Harbor I wrote about ‘the carriers that weren’t there.’   And today I want to continue with the World War II theme and offer an opinion about the greatest conflagration mankind has ever seen.

War, by its nature, is a gamble, but it’s usually just a handful of choices that stand out as catastrophic miscalculations.  Wars aren’t always won through brilliance — more often, they’re lost through arrogance or sheer stupidity.  And in today’s post, we’ll look at three blunders so profound that they didn’t just shape the fate of World War II but they also shaped the geopolitical world we live in today.

1. Operation Barbarossa, i.e., Hitler’s invasion of the Soviet Union,
2. The Japanese attack on Pearl Harbor,
3. Hitler’s declaration of war on the United States.

Each was a monumental error in its own right, but together they guaranteed the eventual defeat of the Axis powers.

~ Hitler’s Invasion of the Soviet Union (Operation Barbarossa, June 1941) ~

Of all the blunders, Hitler’s decision to invade the Soviet Union ranks as the most disastrous. By early 1941 Germany’s stunning victories in France and the low countries had left Britain isolated.  Meanwhile, even without a navy to invade England itself, Hitler could have consolidated his dominance of Europe then strangled Britain through submarine warfare and forced capitulation, or at least a stalemate.  Instead, he turned eastward in pursuit of his ideological dream of Lebensraum, i.e., “Living Space” and the destruction of “Bolshevism.”

The invasion was the largest military campaign in history.  But Germany underestimated Soviet manpower, industrial capacity, and the brutal realities of fighting across the vast steppes. Hitler had witnessed the Soviets struggle against Finland, was intoxicated with the success of blitzkrieg in Western Europe and believed an invasion of Russia would be a swift campaign.  But he grossly miscalculated as the invasion turned into an attritional nightmare.  And by the end of the war, more than 80 percent of Germany’s military losses came on the Eastern Front.  The decision to attack the USSR was not just a gamble—it was a war Germany could not possibly win

~ Japan’s Attack on Pearl Harbor (December 7, 1941) ~

While Hitler opened a fatal second front in Europe, Japan made an equally self-defeating move in the Pacific. The surprise attack on Pearl Harbor was tactically daring, even brilliant in its execution, but strategically catastrophic.  At the time Japan wanted to secure vital resources in Southeast Asia and buy time to fortify its empire goal.  And its top military and political leadership, led by Prime Minister and Army General Hideki Tōjō believed it was essential to cripple the U.S. Pacific Fleet.  But by striking the United States in such a treacherous fashion Japan opened the door to its own destruction.

Until then, the U.S. was deeply split between isolationists and interventionists, but Pearl Harbor erased that debate in a single morning.  Roosevelt addressed Congress the next day, and with overwhelming public and political support, the United States declared war.  Far from paralyzing America, the attack awakened a ‘sleeping giant,’ ensuring Japan’s eventual defeat in a grinding war of attrition the Japanese had no realistic prospect of winning.

Had Japan confined its aggression to the Dutch East Indies and British possessions, it might have forced the United States into a slower, more hesitant response — one fought through supply lines, diplomacy, and indirect pressure rather than a full-scale military commitment.  But Pearl Harbor guaranteed America’s entry into the Pacific War, bringing with it the nation’s vast industrial and military might — a force against which Japan could never hope to prevail.

~ Hitler’s Declaration of War on the United States (December 11, 1941) ~

If Barbarossa was a fatal overreach and Pearl Harbor a reckless gamble, Hitler’s decision to declare war on the United States was sheer folly.  While Germany, Japan and Italy are jointly referred to as the Axis Powers, there really wasn’t a cohesive axis.  There were no formal treaties among the three and their military leadership never developed a coordinated strategy as did the Allies.  Meanwhile, Japan’s pact with Germany was defensive, not offensive, yet just four days after Pearl Harbor, Hitler made Roosevelt’s job of getting the United States into the European war infinitely easier.

Had Hitler refrained, Roosevelt would have faced enormous domestic pressure to focus America’s might solely on Japan.  Instead, the U.S. logically pursued the “Germany First” strategy, committing the weight of our industrial and military power to Europe.  For Germany, already locked in a life-or-death struggle with the Soviet Union and Britain, bringing the United States into the war ensured its inevitable defeat.

~ Conclusion ~

Barbarossa, Pearl Harbor, and Hitler’s declaration of war on the United States were blunders that determined the course of World War II.  The invasion of the Soviet Union bled Germany dry, Pearl Harbor brought the United States into the conflict, and Hitler’s reckless declaration of  war on the U.S. ensured that American industrial might would be directed against Germany first.

History often turns on moments of miscalculation.  In this case, three fateful choices, made within six months of each other, ensured that the Axis powers had no path to victory.  By the end of 1942, the outcome of the war was inevitable; the Axis powers just didn’t realize it.