“Hoist with his own petard” is a phrase that comes from Shakespeare’s Hamlet, when the Danish prince says, “For ’tis the sport to have the engineer, Hoist with his own petard.”  For those unfamiliar with the term, a petard was a small explosive device used to blow open gates or walls during sixteenth-century warfare.  To be “hoist” meant the bomb exploded while the person setting it was still nearby—literally blowing him upward.  In plain English, it means a scheme or plan that backfired.

So, will Trump’s proposal to give Americans a $5,000 dividend work for or against him?  With 260,000,000 adults in America the president’s promise would cost the treasury about $1.3 trillion.  And if his trade deals and investments are generating wealth for the country, why should ordinary Americans not share in the proceeds?  Trump tells us the economy is strong, but for many Americans, a strong economy doesn’t square with what they’re paying at the pump and at the checkout counter.

So, let’s begin the conversation with basic economics.  Government does not create wealth; private enterprise does.  Anything we receive from the government is a redistribution in one form or another.  So, the first question we should ask is, compared to what?

If Trump’s trade & tariff policies are successful and Venezuelan oil becomes the boom it’s expected to be, then is the $1.3 trillion pledge worth it compared to reducing the national debt or reducing tax rates?  Lest we forget, Zohran Mamdani isn’t giving anything away for free – he’s just redistributing New York City’s tax dollars.

Economists will argue we’ve seen this movie before.  Biden’s American Rescue Plan added $1.9 trillion in spending and tax relief to the economy.  Inflation was 1.4% in January 2021, before the plan became law and by June 2022, inflation was at 9.1%.  Americans may have received relief checks, but they also paid more to the butcher, the baker and the candlestick maker.

It’s inaccurate to say the American Rescue Plan alone caused 9.1% inflation. But it is equally inaccurate to pretend the additional $1.9 trillion injected into the economy had no effect.  The rescue plan added substantial demand – the supply simply couldn’t keep up; so, there is economic risk.

Five thousand dollars per adult would add an enormous amount of purchasing power to the economy.  Some people would save the money, some would pay down debt, but most would likely spend it quickly.  The risk is always when huge numbers of people chase the same limited supply of products or services, prices respond.

Meanwhile, there’s something far more important at play here – human nature!  And the people who would most need $5,000 are not necessarily republicans or democrats.  These are kitchen table issues for working families with no margin for a car repair, a medical bill or a rent increase; seniors and disabled Americans living on fixed incomes; single parents; and households already carrying high-interest credit-card debt.  For them, $5,000 is not found money, it’s a lifeline.

On tomorrow morning’s talk shows, Stephanopoulos, Tapper, Brennan and the like will tell us Trump’s proposal lacks details – something I’m sure is no accident.  They will ask who’s included what are the parameters, would the payments be taxable and then demand to know where the money would come from.  Even for those without TDS, those concerns are valid.

Constitutionality will be another point of contention.  A president cannot simply write $1.3 trillion in checks.  Congress would have to pass legislation and appropriate the money.  And every senator and congress person who supports it would have to explain how they plan to finance it.

But there is genius in this proposal.  Trump’s $5,000 promise is eminently understandable.  Every adult in America can understand it in five seconds.  It’s simple, memorable and meaningful.

The democrats will call it inflationary, fiscally reckless or illegal.  Fiscal conservatives may like the idea of returning money to taxpayers but dislike borrowing a trillion dollars to do it.  But if the republicans retain both houses, how in world can the democrats vote against it without being called Grinches less than 7 weeks before Christmas?

Recently I wrote about the NFL season.  The NFL does not maintain an official “Hail Mary” statistical category, and there’s no formal record book line for it.  However, Aaron Rodgers is generally regarded as having thrown the most Hail Mary touchdown passes in NFL history.  And that’s what I think this is for the president.

Vegas doesn’t publish odds on American elections, but the president sees he has a 1 in 4 chance (my estimate) of retaining both houses of congress, and he’s throwing up a Hail Mary.  It’s fourth down, he’s on his own 45, down by six with 15 seconds on the clock – what has he got to lose?

We’ll have to wait until November to know if Trump’s proposal was successful, but this much I do believe – he has significantly lessened the odds against him.