Today I want to share a few thoughts about the current hostilities in the Middle East…

A)The United States has been involved in more than 150-armed conflicts since our nation’s founding.  However, the United States Congress has only declared war in five (5) of those instances, i.e., the War of 1812, the Mexican American War, the Spanish American War, World Wars I and World War II.  Which means all the talk about an illegal war is just democrat caterwauling .

B) Donald Trump didn’t start a war in the Middle East – the United States has been involved in an undeclared war with Iran for 47 years.  He’s just the first American president who realized the can couldn’t be kicked down road any longer without posing grave risks to the United States and the world.

C) Listening to the Europeans on this matter is a fool’s errand – Europeans never want to go to war, nonetheless, they managed to start the two largest conflagrations in human history.

D) The Iranian regime has been the world’s leading exporter of terror for nearly 50 years; it has promised death to America and harassed our nation and killed our soldiers & sailors in one form or another since the takeover of our Embassy in 1979.

E) Those who’ve been to war know that wars are Murphy’s Law on steroids, “If something can go wrong it will go wrong and at the worst possible moment.”   And with so many unknowns and moving parts mistakes and miscalculations are inevitable and we should not be surprised when they occur.

F) Wars are inherently unstable systems and prone to spinning out of control.  And this one is no different because once missiles start flying and bombs start falling the forces of restraint, deliberation & diplomacy weaken and are soon replaced by fear and uncertainty, neither of which are conducive to measured nor rational thinking.

G) Leaders rarely have ideal information, and that includes President Trump, making it easy to misread an adversary’s intentions and capabilities.

H) Accidents happen, and in the fog of war, small tactical events can turn into major strategic mistakes – think of the old proverb, “For want of a nail the shoe was lost…”

I) Once force is used, retaliation becomes politically and militarily difficult to stop as each side responds not only to the last move, but to what they fear might come next.  Side A strikes to deter.  Side B strikes back to restore credibility.  Side A escalates to avoid appearing weak.   And this type of “action–reaction” cycle always moves faster than diplomacy.

J) Our enemy – the Islamic Republic of Iran is every bit as barbaric (and in some ways more so) as were Hitler’s SS and as fanatical as Tojo’s Kamikazes during World War II.

K) Some of the factors that will determine the length and breadth of this war are the midterm elections, the public’s mood in general, and how the media reports and amplifies the conflict.

L) Many wars begin with the assumption they will be short, decisive, and controllable.  Leaders often believe the opponent will quickly capitulate as Vladimir Putin did when he invaded Ukraine over four years ago.

M) Far too often, limited objectives don’t stay limited.

N) Does any clear-thinking individual believe if Iran obtained a nuclear weapon that the Mullahs wouldn’t use it on Israel or at a minimum, to start a nuclear arms race in the Middle East?

O) Eight American presidents, dating back to the 1950s have tried to placate/appease North Korea and what did they get for their efforts – a nuclear armed Korean Peninsula – and the world certainly doesn’t need a second nuclear armed rogue government.

P) History shows that appeasement occasionally buys time, but it rarely satisfies an a determined adversary. More often it encourages further demands because the aggressor concludes that resistance will be weak.

Q) And lastly, Donald Trump ensured that the United States took the initiative in this war forcing the Mullahs to react to him instead of allowing the IRGC to shape events, define the battle space and control the tempo, location, and terms of the conflict.

I’ll close this post by using one of the president’s favorite expressions, “We’ll see how it all turns out.”