A few thoughts on tomorrow

Few people question that the partisan divide in America has deepened in recent years.  And a good argument can be made that it accelerated exponentially during the lead-up to, and immediately following the 2016 presidential election when an indecorous political outsider, Donald Trump defeated Washington insider, Hillary Clinton.  The results of that election have never been fully accepted by the left, as elements within our government have done everything in their power to undermine this president throughout his term.

Perhaps the most graphic and tragic illustration of the hatred, bile and infantilism of the anti-Trump left came after the 2020 State of the Union Address when the Speaker of the House, Nancy Pelosi, a woman who holds one of the most exalted, powerful and prestigious political offices on earth, shredded a sitting president’s address in front of the nation and the world; a communication by the way, that’s required by the Constitution.

The first Presidential Election I recall where I had a modicum of understanding about the issues was the 1960 Kennedy/Nixon presidential contest.  And if one does a bit of historical research, they’ll find there wasn’t much difference between the two men or their respective political parties in terms of policy and general disposition towards the major issues facing the country.  That is no longer the case as the country has drifted further to the left.  And while politics has never been a ‘short-pants game;’ in 21^st century America, politics has become a blood sport.

We’re told tomorrow’s election is the most consequential in American history.  But Americans are given that warning prior to every presidential election.  Nonetheless, I’m going to go out on a limb and state that in my opinion, this time it’s true, which means the stakes are extraordinarily high.

If forced to make a prediction, I believe we’re going to have a new president come January 20^th, 2021 and that truly frightens me because I love my country and I fear for its future.  At the same time, let me be clear, at 75-years old, as my former roommate from flight school has said on numerous occasions, “Butch, our time is past.”  And while I hate to admit it, my former roomie is absolutely correct.

Let me also be clear that regardless of who wins the presidency, life will go on.  And unless there’s another COVID-like black swan event, a major military conflict, or an economic depression, Bobbi’s and my life will largely be unaffected.  But what about the 95% of Americans who are in the middle of their working careers and raising families; or young people still in school who haven’t even embarked on a career yet?

Those are the people who will feel the effect of this election far more than Bobbi and I because I believe a Biden victory will be a trajectory altering moment in American history; a moment every bit as consequential as December 7th 1941 or April 12, 1861, (the date Confederate troops fired on Fort Sumter in South Carolina’s Charleston Harbor igniting the Civil War.)

I don’t have a crystal ball, nor am I an economic or political seer, but if the president wins re-election, I suspect we will see

1. More of the same from the anti-Trump left and it will grow bolder
2. The media will become even more complicit with the Democrat Party.
3. Anti-anti-American organizations such as Antifa and Black Lives Matters will continue to disrupt society and
4. Unethical and scurrilous politicians such as Adam Schiff will remain unchecked on their attacks on the president.

At the same time, and while I do not want to attack or criticize Joe Biden as a person, this much I do believe.  If Biden wins the presidency you can count on 10 things happening.

1. The economy will slow, unemployment numbers will worsen and our individual portfolios and 401ks will have less value one year from now than they do today. I fully expect Bobbi’s and my net worth to decline significantly.  (As an aside, the only mitigating factor is if Trump winds and saying no to a lockdown.)
2. Restrictions will be placed on U.S. energy and the United States will lose its status as an energy independent nation. Instead we will once again rely on foreign oil as Russia, Iran and Saudi begin refilling the coffers with billions in petro-dollars.
3. Biden will rejoin the Paris Accord and greenhouse gas emissions will be higher in 2021 than in 2020, then higher in 2022 than in 2021, and even higher in 2023 than in 2022… and so on.
4. North Korea will resume nuclear weapons testing and long-range missile launches after holding both in abeyance during the last three and a half years.
5. Iran will grow friskier and will try to destabilize the Middle East and disrupt the recent peace agreements between Israel and many of its Arab neighbors; an agreement that was brokered the Trump administration.
6. Putin, who has been relatively quiet in recent years will become more aggressive in Ukraine, Crimea, Eastern Europe, the Baltics and perhaps even in Syria.
7. China will become more adventuresome in the South China Sea and Taiwan – there will be conflicts there.
8. The rioting on our streets will not abate.
9. Inner city schools will further deteriorate and minority kids will continue to suffer as measured by test scores and lastly,
10. The country will be no closer to coming together a year from now than it is today.

Allow me to close with two statements. First, vote as if your life depended upon it because in very many ways it does; and secondly, I hope against hope that my Wednesday post reads, “Boy, was I wrong about the outcome of this election!”